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Crypto Market Regimes (Long-term)
10 primary regimes that map the full crypto market lifecycle — Established Bear → Capitulation → Accumulation → Early Recovery → BTC-Led Bull → Broadening Bull → Broad Bull → Speculative Euphoria → Distribution / Deleveraging, then back to bear. Structural Shock sits outside the cycle as an emergency override that can interrupt any stage. Each regime implies a different set of coins, leverage levels, holding durations and funding-cost tolerance — and links to the live API data that detects it. The current regime is detected live and highlighted below.
Current regimeBTC-Led Bull MarketWeeks-MonthsConfirmed uptrend with BTC dominance elevated — BTC absorbing most of the new capital.
This is the slow-moving structural cycle (weeks–months). For the fast, score-driven read of current conditions, see the Market Health verdict — the two are complementary lenses and can legitimately differ (e.g. short-term stabilizing within a structural bear).
An exceptional market-wide disruption caused by macro news, exchange failure, protocol exploit, depeg, geopolitical shock or a major liquidation event. An emergency override rather than a normal cycle stage.
Security stress
Trigger
Market-wide hack / exploit / depeg stress (0–100), driven by the DefiLlama hacks registry plus CEX-flow flight — spikes the moment an exchange or protocol breaks.
Altcoins, memes and low-cap assets lead; leverage, funding, attention and retail participation become excessive. An internal euphoria_score separates an ordinary alt expansion from a terminal blow-off.
Meme hype score
Breadth
0–100 meme-hype composite with a meme_season flag (broad heating + correlated pack move) — the cleanest read on speculative breadth.
Market breadth deteriorates, breakouts fail, alts begin falling faster than BTC and leveraged positions are unwound. Exposes an internal stage — early_distribution → active_deleveraging.
Cycle classifier
Phase
The topping_out regime tag — price near highs while breadth and leadership quietly deteriorate (early distribution).
Why gate strategies by regime? Each regime implies a different playbook — the coins you trade, the leverage you carry, how long you hold, and the funding cost you tolerate all shift with the cycle. A bull-market trend system fires straight into a deleveraging cascade; an accumulation range-fade dies the moment a structural shock hits. Detecting the regime first, then gating each strategy to the regimes it was built for, is what keeps one approach from becoming noise inside another. Structural Shock (#1) is an emergency override that can interrupt any stage; the remaining nine form the lifecycle from bear through euphoria and back.