Total Market Cap: $2.25T +3.41%
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24h Volume: $117.72B
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BTC Dominance: 57.6%
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Market Health: 35/100 BEARISH
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Short-Term: 53/100 NEUTRAL
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Long-Term: 17/100 BEARISH
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Open Interest: $48.45B +2.51%
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24h Liquidations: $327.99M
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Long/Short: 55.9% / 44.1%
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Total Market Cap: $2.25T +3.41%
|
24h Volume: $117.72B
|
BTC Dominance: 57.6%
|
Market Health: 35/100 BEARISH
|
Short-Term: 53/100 NEUTRAL
|
Long-Term: 17/100 BEARISH
|
Open Interest: $48.45B +2.51%
|
24h Liquidations: $327.99M
|
Long/Short: 55.9% / 44.1%
|
Current regime
Established Bear Market
Weeks-Months
Sustained decline — lower highs, lower lows, weak breadth and failing rallies.
This is the slow-moving structural cycle (weeks–months). For the fast, score-driven read of current conditions, see the
Market Health verdict — the two are complementary lenses and can legitimately differ (e.g. short-term stabilizing within a structural bear).
Hours – Days
Risk-off → reversal
Override
An exceptional market-wide disruption caused by macro news, exchange failure, protocol exploit, depeg, geopolitical shock or a major liquidation event. An emergency override rather than a normal cycle stage.
Market-wide hack / exploit / depeg stress (0–100), driven by the DefiLlama hacks registry plus CEX-flow flight — spikes the moment an exchange or protocol breaks.
Geopolitical & policy-shock score with a signed pro-/anti-crypto tilt — catches macro-news and tariff-driven dislocations.
Forward catalyst pressure (unlocks, macro prints, depegs) — tells you whether the shock landed in an already-fragile window.
Real-time forced-liquidation volume — the size and direction of the deleveraging the shock forces through the book.
Per-asset 7d realized vol in the top decile of its 90d range — confirms a genuine vol event rather than a headline blip.
Weeks – Months
Short
A sustained declining market with lower highs, lower lows, weak breadth and failing rallies.
Confirms a sustained bear_market regime with weak breadth — the backdrop for lower highs and failing rallies.
The model's strong_trend_bear state with confidence — a quant read on the persistence of the downtrend.
Persistently flat / negative funding shows no leveraged appetite — the hallmark of a grind, not a bottom.
Net coin flow to exchanges — steady inflows mean continued distribution and sell pressure into every rally.
Days – Weeks
Short (extreme)
The late, violent stage of a bear market, characterised by forced selling, extreme volatility and large liquidation events.
Dual-score market health with a bear_market / early_recovery regime tag — confirms you're in the late-bear leg, not a mid-cycle dip.
Long liquidations
SeverityForced-selling volume — capitulation shows up as clustered long-liquidation spikes and collapsing open interest.
Miner capitulation
Bottom signal30d-vs-60d hashrate state machine — miner capitulation, then recovery, has historically marked late-bear bottoms.
MVRV value zone
Bottom signalMVRV with a capitulation zone (<1.0) — coins trading below realized value flags deep-value capitulation.
Top-decile realized vol — the violent two-way swings and relief rallies that define a capitulation flush.
Weeks – Months
Neutral
Selling pressure has weakened and the market is forming a base, but no durable positive trend has been confirmed.
Watch for the bear_market → early_recovery transition — the base forms before a new trend is confirmed.
Whale accumulation
LeadingSilent large-wallet buildup score — the smart-money signature of an accumulation base.
Stablecoin dry powder
FuelStablecoins parked on exchanges = buying power waiting on the sidelines for the turn.
30d realized vol in its bottom 20th percentile — the volatility contraction that precedes a new trend.
Weeks
Long (cautious)
Major assets begin reclaiming trend levels, making higher lows and attracting new capital, but false recoveries remain possible.
The early_recovery regime tag — higher lows reclaiming structure while sentiment stays restrained.
200MA reclaim
Trend reclaimScreener for assets reclaiming the 200-day MA — the institutional re-entry line that defines a recovery.
Whale accumulation
LeadingConfirms large wallets are still adding as price reclaims trend — accumulation carrying into the recovery.
Weeks – Months
Long BTC
BTC is in a confirmed uptrend and receives most of the new capital while ETH and the broader alt market lag.
The early_bull regime tag — confirms a strengthening uptrend led by the majors.
8 on-chain cycle metrics (MVRV, NUPL, Puell, Pi Cycle…) — where BTC sits in its own cycle as it leads.
Spot-BTC ETF net flows — sustained institutional inflows are the capital that powers a BTC-led leg.
Weeks
Long large-caps
Leadership expands from BTC into ETH, SOL, large-cap alts and major sectors.
early_bull breadth check — leadership widening beyond BTC into the large caps.
Regime + up/down probability for every active perp (~200+) — the heatmap that shows leadership broadening into ETH, SOL and other large caps.
Rising funding on large-cap alts signals fresh leveraged demand rotating out of BTC.
Months
Long
A broad range of large-, mid- and selected lower-cap assets trend upward. Breadth and market participation are strong.
The confirmed_bull regime — BTC, ETH and a broad alt universe trending up together.
Regime + direction probability across the whole perp universe — confirms how broad participation really is beyond the majors.
Daily market-regime label 2019→now — confirms the bull regime's persistence against prior cycles.
Composite of flows, dormancy, miner pressure and active addresses — broad on-chain health underwriting the bull.
Days – Weeks
Long alts
Fade risk
Altcoins, memes and low-cap assets lead; leverage, funding, attention and retail participation become excessive. An internal euphoria_score separates an ordinary alt expansion from a terminal blow-off.
0–100 meme-hype composite with a meme_season flag (broad heating + correlated pack move) — the cleanest read on speculative breadth.
Euphoric meme set
Fade riskThe meme universe filtered to the euphoric regime — overheated blow-offs on extreme funding, long-crowded and primed to fade.
Funding extremes
OverheatedExtreme positive funding = longs paying heavily to hold — the leverage signature of a blow-off top.
MVRV in its euphoria zone (>3.5) — price stretched far above realized value, a classic terminal-blow-off warning.
Screener for RSI >80 — the overextension confluence to stack before fading a parabolic move.
Days – Weeks
Short setup → Short
Market breadth deteriorates, breakouts fail, alts begin falling faster than BTC and leveraged positions are unwound. Exposes an internal stage — early_distribution → active_deleveraging.
The topping_out regime tag — price near highs while breadth and leadership quietly deteriorate (early distribution).
Meme distribution
Reversal warnMeme set filtered to distribution — extended names stalling on positive-elevated funding, longs trapped near the top.
Rising net inflows to exchanges = coins moving to sell — the distribution signature under a topping tape.
Collapsing open interest as the unwind accelerates — leverage being flushed, the marker of active deleveraging rather than early distribution.
Long liquidations
SeverityAccelerating long-liquidation volume — alts falling faster than BTC as leveraged longs are forced out.
Why gate strategies by regime? Each regime implies a different playbook — the coins you trade, the leverage you carry, how long you hold, and the funding cost you tolerate all shift with the cycle. A bull-market trend system fires straight into a deleveraging cascade; an accumulation range-fade dies the moment a structural shock hits. Detecting the regime first, then gating each strategy to the regimes it was built for, is what keeps one approach from becoming noise inside another. Structural Shock (#1) is an emergency override that can interrupt any stage; the remaining nine form the lifecycle from bear through euphoria and back.