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Join us on DiscordWhere is Bitcoin in its cycle? These on-chain and price-based indicators have historically clustered near cycle tops and bottoms. Read them as a basket — no single one is a crystal ball.
Log-scale weekly close from 2017, with a fitted power-law corridor (price grows roughly with age4.39). Bands show the historical 2–98% envelope around fair value; dashed orange lines mark halvings. For context/position-sizing — not a price prediction, not financial advice.
111-day moving average — a Pi Cycle top prints when it crosses above 2× the 350-day MA.
350-day MA and its Fibonacci multiples (×1.6/×2/×3/×5) act as cycle resistance bands.
Context for position sizing — not a timing machine.
Bitcoin moves in multi-year cycles, and a handful of metrics have repeatedly flagged the extremes. The Puell Multiple and Pi Cycle Top have marked cycle tops; the 200-week moving average and a low AHR999 have marked cycle bottoms. Each looks at a different force — miner revenue, moving-average crosses, cost basis — so they rarely all fire at once.
Treat them as a dashboard, not a trigger. When several top signals light up together, cycle risk is elevated; when bottom signals cluster, history says accumulation zones.
curl -H "X-API-Key: cdk_live_yourkey" \ https://cryptodataapi.com/api/v1/market-intelligence/btc/cycle-indicators
Cycle indicators — MVRV, Pi Cycle, the halving clock — operate on months, not minutes. They are position-sizing and regime inputs, not entry triggers, and the honest test is whether they improved a simple strategy's drawdown, not whether they called exact tops.
Build me a cycle-aware Bitcoin allocation strategy on CryptoDataAPI data.
Read the live indicator set from /api/v1/market-intelligence/btc/cycle-indicators. Use the cycle indicators to scale a core BTC position between 0% and 100% — define exactly which indicators move the allocation, by how much, and how often you rebalance.
Then backtest against daily bars from /api/v1/backtesting/klines?symbol=BTC&interval=1d, going back as far as the deep archive allows (Binance daily reaches 2017).
Compare against 100% buy-and-hold on final return, max drawdown, and time-underwater. A cycle strategy earns its keep by cutting drawdown without giving up most of the upside — if it fails that test, report it failed.